Following a significant 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which ranked as the third-costliest on record and featured multiple Category 5 storms, early forecasts indicate another active year ahead.
Leading hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU), now in their 42nd year of predictions, have issued an initial 2025 outlook calling for an “above average” season. Their analysis points to warmer-than-usual surface temperatures in the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea as a key driver.
CSU’s Tropical Weather and Climate team anticipates 17 named storms between June 1 and November 30. Of these, they predict nine will intensify into hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher), boasting sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU and lead author of the report, noted the uncertainty inherent in early forecasts, stating, “Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive… the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”
CSU experts explain that unusually warm spring waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic tend to weaken the subtropical high, resulting in weaker winds across the tropical Atlantic. This pattern is expected to contribute to continued above-average water temperatures throughout the peak of the 2025 hurricane season.
Their report emphasizes that warm Atlantic waters provide the necessary fuel for hurricane development and contribute to lower atmospheric pressure and increased atmospheric instability, both conditions favorable for storm formation.
Given the combination of a warm Atlantic and the anticipated absence of El Niño, CSU forecasts an above-normal season. However, they caution that April forecasts have the lowest historical accuracy due to potential significant atmospheric and oceanic changes before the peak season (August-October).
CSU predicts 2025 hurricane activity to be approximately 125% of the 1991-2020 average. For context, the 2024 season was about 130% of the average. Last year saw 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, with Hurricanes Helene and Milton causing significant damage and fatalities in the southeastern U.S.
CSU will provide forecast updates on June 11, July 9, and August 6.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva echoes the concern for another year of “volatile” hurricanes. AccuWeather highlights the already elevated water temperatures across the ocean, Gulf, and Caribbean as a major factor fueling potential storm development throughout the year.
DaSilva explained, “A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average… A deep pool of warm water provides much more fuel for hurricanes than a shallow layer of warmth near the ocean’s surface.”
While Pacific climate patterns like La Niña and El Niño can influence Atlantic hurricane activity, neither is expected in the first half of the season, though this could change later in the year. A shift towards La Niña could lead to a more active end to the season, while El Niño could bring an earlier conclusion.
AccuWeather predicts 13 to 18 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major hurricane strength. They also anticipate three to six direct U.S. impacts and estimate a 20% chance of exceeding 18 named storms.
DaSilva summarized, “AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and direct impacts to the United States.”
He also noted the potential for an early start to the season, with a possible named storm before June 1, followed by a potential lull and a busy late season, similar to 2024. The peak of hurricane season typically occurs around mid-September.
AccuWeather identifies the northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as having a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts, along with Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean.
