La Niña, one of the three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), plays a significant role in influencing global climate patterns. These recurring phases—El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral—impact water temperatures, rainfall, and weather patterns across the tropics. Currently, the ENSO is in a Neutral state.
According to the latest NOAA models, there is now a 66% likelihood that La Niña will develop between September and November, with a 74% chance of it persisting through the winter months of November to January.
“Although La Niña’s later arrival might delay the onset of certain environmental impacts, such as intensified storms due to reduced wind shear, it does not diminish the likelihood that Southwest Florida will experience these effects once La Niña sets in,” said Allie Pecenka, SCCF Policy Associate.
The ongoing warming of waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean further increases the probability of stronger storms, which, when combined with La Niña’s storm-enhancing effects, could lead to an exceptionally active hurricane season.
Beyond the potential for more powerful storms, La Niña is also expected to bring a dry, warmer-than-average winter to the southern U.S., while the northern regions may experience a wetter, colder-than-average winter.
“The continuous collection and analysis of climate, weather, and water quality data by organizations like NOAA and SCCF’s RECON network are crucial in providing the scientific community with the information needed to make accurate predictions for Southwest Florida and its environment,” Pecenka added.
