While this year’s Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually calm so far (fingers crossed), forecasters are predicting a significant uptick in tropical activity later this month.
Experts from AccuWeather are advising businesses and local officials to remain prepared for an increase in tropical storms, as water temperatures in the Gulf have surged to record levels for this time of year, heightening the risk of rapid intensification.
What’s Driving the Shift?
As Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert, explains, the climatological peak of hurricane season occurs around September 10, when Atlantic water temperatures are typically at their highest, creating the ideal conditions for tropical storms to develop. Interestingly, this year marks the first time in nearly a decade that the peak of hurricane season has passed without a named storm, a rare event that’s only happened three times in the last 30 years.
AccuWeather also noted that this year marks the first back-to-back Labor Day weekends without a named storm in the Atlantic basin in more than 30 years. A surge of dry air has been a significant factor, limiting tropical development. However, experts predict that the second half of the season will likely be more active than the first, as surges of dry air and Saharan dust begin to subside.
What to Expect Going Forward
Starting next week, the tropics will likely see less dry air, reduced wind shear, and lower amounts of Saharan dust, all of which will allow for more favorable conditions for storm development. Additionally, sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the Gulf have reached unprecedented highs. These warm waters are expected to fuel the rapid strengthening of any storms that form in the region.
“The exceptional warmth in the Gulf is troubling,” said DaSilva. “These warm waters can act as fuel for developing storms and intensifying hurricanes. If a storm forms or moves into these waters later this month, we are concerned about the potential for rapid intensification.”
What Does This Mean for the U.S.?
AccuWeather’s forecast calls for 13-18 named storms, including 7-10 hurricanes, with 3-5 of them reaching Category 3 or higher. The U.S. Gulf Coast, especially Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, North Carolina, as well as Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Atlantic Canada, are all at higher-than-average risk for direct impacts this year.
Stay prepared and stay informed! For more details, visit AccuWeather’s Hurricane Center.
For hurricane preparedness tips, check out the 2025 Lee County Hurricane Guide by the Breeze Newspapers here.
