Category: Real Estate News

Our Southwest Florida Market Report for August 2022 includes the latest real estate data, as well as a comprehensive list of market conditions in SWFL. From inventory and sales activity to market trends, it all comes together in this monthly market report. Stay up-to-date and plan ahead with our monthly market reports!

Closed Sales
Closed sales for the 12-month period ending August 31, 2022 were down 24.7% from the preceding 12-months, from 41,906 to 31,541.  The 1,876 sales posted for the month of August were down 30.8% when compared to August of 2021, a time when the market was still posting a record-breaking sales pace. Compared with pre-pandemic trends, August sales were down 13%.

Listing Inventory / New Listings
As of August 31, 5,420 properties were available, up 108.8% from a year prior but down 2% from the prior month. New listings for the 12-month period ending August 31, 2022 were down 5.4% from the preceding 12-months, from 38,564 to 36,467. For the month of August, new listings were down 7.5% from August of 2021.  2.06 months of supply was posted as of August 31, 2022, unchanged from the prior month and remaining well into a sellers’ market territory. In Southwest Florida, 6 to 12 months of supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Average Selling Price
The average selling price for the 12-month period through August 31, 2022 was $745,219, up 22.5% from the preceding 12-month period when the average selling price was $608,210.

Perspective
Over the past 18 months, after the pandemic-driven frenzy peaked in early 2021, the Southwest Florida real estate market has steadily moved back toward a state of normalcy.  The rate of newly pending sales returned to pre-pandemic levels in May, and in June and July trended below pre-pandemic levels resulting in fewer than normal closed sales during the following months. However, after that June and July slowdown, newly pended sales started to strengthen and, by the end of August, were once again in line with pre-pandemic trends. This ebb and flow isn’t unusual, and it may be a good sign considering it’s a shift from a trend which, up until that point, was one of deceleration in newly pending sales. After steady increases from the low in February, listing inventory plateaued in August, posting a modest decrease from July. This is due to steady sales absorbing available inventory, as well as to a somewhat slower than usual pace of new listings entering the market in August. Listing inventory, at 5,420 units as of August 31, has a long way to go before it returns to pre-pandemic levels and, with 2.06 months of supply, we are still firmly in a seller’s market.

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Closed Sales
Closed sales for the 12-month period ending July 31, 2022 were down 23.2% from the preceding 12-months, from 42,071 to 32,295.  The 1,911 sales posted for the month of July were down 38.7% when compared to July of 2021, a time when the market was still posting a record-breaking sales pace.

Listing Inventory / New Listings
As of July 31, 5,552 properties were available, up 112.9% from a year prior and up 4% from the prior month. New listings for the 12-month period ending July 31, 2022 were down 6.2% from the preceding 12-months, from 39,158 to 36,714. For the month of July, new listings were down 5.3% from July of 2021.  2.06 months of supply was posted as of July 31, 2022, keeping the market well into a sellers’ market territory. In Southwest Florida, 6 to 12 months of supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Average Selling Price
The average selling price for the 12-month period through July 31, 2022 was $730,978, up 21% from the preceding 12-month period when the average selling price was $604,220.

Summary
After two years of unprecedented sales activity, simply returning to a more normal pace can create an illusion that sales are struggling. Although sales have slowed down considerably from the all-time records that were created over the past two years, homes are still going under contract at a steady pace not far from pre-pandemic levels. The market has not suddenly stalled as headlines might lead one to think. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, buyer activity peaked in late 2020 into early 2021. After a generally gradual descent from that peak, newly pending sales have leveled out and they continue at a steady pace not far from pre-pandemic levels. This has allowed listing inventory to grow, providing buyers more options and reducing competition for properties. However, the rate at which listing inventory had been increasing has slowed, with only a 4% month-over-month increase in July. With this in mind, buyers waiting for an inventory surplus to emerge might consider whether waiting for the unknown is worth risking missing out on currently available homes that could be the right fit. With more listings for buyers to choose from, and with less competition between buyers, sellers will have to take this into consideration when pricing their homes and entertaining offers. This is not to say that it’s not a good time to sell; it is a good time to sell, but expectations for a seller are not the same as they were earlier in the year. Properly positioned homes can still sell for a good price in a reasonable amount of time, but a seller who has priced their home well above recent closed sales may have to reduce, and even when priced correctly it may take longer to sell than homes that closed even just a few months ago. Average days on market for closed sales in July was 21 days, up from a low of 15 days in April. The average for currently pending sales is 36 days; still low compared to the pre-pandemic average of 93 days.

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Closed Sales
Closed sales for the 12-month period ending April 30, 2022 were down 7.13% from the preceding 12-months, from 38,016 to 35,304. With the 12-month period through July 2021 marking the height of the buying frenzy with 42,071 closes sales, it comes as no surprise that 12-month rolling sales are now posting modest declines by comparison, and we should expect this trend to continue over the coming months as sales continue to normalize. Sales are still strong, however, with April 2022 posting 3,190 closed sales; an April sales pace only exceeded last year when 3,267 sales were posted for the month.

Listing Inventory / New Listings
2,590 properties were available as of April 30, 2022, up 3.31% from the same date in 2021. New listings during the twelve months ending April 30, 2022 were down 7.58%, from 39,179 to 36,210. After several months of year-over-year declines, monthly new listings for March and April posted increases of 5.91% and 3.34%, respectively.

Average Selling Price
The average selling price for the 12-month period through April 30, 2022 was $688,596, up 20.69% from the preceding 12-month period when the average selling price was $570,564.

Summary
While down 80% compared to pre-pandemic levels, listing inventory has posted slow and steady increases over the past three months. 2,590 homes were on the market as of April 30, a 27% increase from 2,035 posted in January. This is due in part to an increase in new listings in March and April, but also can be attributed to the pace of sales slowly cooling after several months of record-breaking activity. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, closed sales for the month of February were up by 31%. March reflected a 23% increase, and April’s closed sales were up 14% compared to pre-pandemic levels. This movement toward a closer-to-normal pace of sales is a welcomed trend for buyers desiring more options; however, with .88 months (27 days) of supply posted at the end of April, it’s clearly still a strong sellers’ market.

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INFLATION/ FED SPEAK/ GEO POLITICS

Higher inflation has been the main topic for several months and mortage interest rate market has been volatile.

Last week the markets were stunned by the high 6% CPI year-over-year increase and fun her stunned when Fed President from St Louis (Bullard) declared he wanted to see a 1% increase in the Fed Funds rate by July I, 2022. With only 3 meetings scheduled between now and July I, using Bullard’s math one of the meetings (March, May, or June) would need to see a .50 basis point increase and the financial markets have been more in line with pricing for a .25 increase. As a result, mortgage rates climbed to the highest levels in over two years.

So as we move into a new business week there are 2 items that we will are keeping our eye on;

Even though the CPI report is in the rear-view mirror and we rum our anent ion to tomorrow’s Producer Price Index. The Producer Price Index is a measure of wholesale inflation and much of this gets passed on to the consumer.

Russia/Ukraine border situation- there has been a lot of news regarding a Russian invasion, but it has not materialized yet. Headline news/geopolitical news in recent months has not had an impact on the bond market but in this instance, the Russia/Ukraine border issue is moving markets.

Looking at the week ahead, investors will focus on tomorrow’s Producer Price Index which measures wholesale inflation. The Federal Reserve notes are due out this Wednesday and are likely to get attention as they may speak to the view of future Fed activity. Retail Sales and Existing Home Sales information are also coming out this week.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, XIN IX, Inc., Business Insider, Mortgage Bankers Association, Mortgage Daily News, Investing.com

2022 Single Family Mortgage Loan Limit

• Conventional Loan Limit $647,200
• FHA – Collier County – $552,000 or FHA – Lee County is $420,680
• (Duplex, Triplex and Quad Loan Limits are Higher)

FREDDIE MAC’s WEEKLY PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET SURVEY® From January 27, 2022

• 30 Year Fixed= 3.69% + .8 discount point/ IS Year Fixed= 2.93% + .8 discount point
• The 30 Year fixed mortgage rate is approx. 1 year ago – February 4^th, 2021 was 2.73 +.7 discount. A discount point of .7 means an additional charge to the buyer of $2870.00 based on the average mortgage loan of $410,000 (MBA). A discount point of .7 means an additional charge to the buyer of$2870.00 based on the average mortgage loan of$410,000 (MBA)

LEADING INDICATORS TODAY

• 10 Year Treasury-Opened Today 1.9630 the 52 week low is 1.1280 and the 52 week high is 2.0630
• WTI Crude Oil (CLl}-Opened Today $93.93 the 52 week low is $57.25 and the 52 weeks high is $95.82

Closed Sales
Closed sales for the 12-month period ending December 31 were up 23% from the preceding 12-months, from 31,834 to 39,179. Sales for the month of December, although down 20% from the unprecedented surge we experienced in 2020, were up 34% when compared to pre-pandemic levels of the three preceding years.

Listing Inventory / New Listings
With 2,108 properties on the market as of December 31, listing inventory remains low. This is less due to a lack of listings entering the market than it is to the rate at which listings are selling. New listings for the 12-month period ending December 31 were down 4% from the preceding 12 months, from 37,855 to 36,282.

Average Selling Price
The average selling price for the 12-months through December 31 was $641,354, up 24% from the preceding 12-month period when the average selling price was $518,791.

Summary
Despite historically low standing inventory throughout the year, with nearly 40,000 properties sold, 2021 broke all past annual closed sales records. New listings, although down somewhat from 2020, still came in at a steady pace but most were spoken for by buyers right away, sometimes even prior to the listings making it to the Multiple Listing System and thereby never being counted in the standing inventory. 2021 also realized a notable increase in the average sales price with a 24% gain over the preceding year. By comparison, 2020 posted a 17% increase. Notably, prior to these considerable increases, the average price only rose an average of 2% per year from 2016 through 2019. The average sales price in Southwest Florida has risen an average of 11% per year over the past five years.
For 2021, John R. Wood Properties surpassed all other brokerages in total closed transactions, total closed sales volume, and total listings sold in Southwest Florida!

Closed Sales
Closed sales for the 12-month period ending November 30 were up 30% from the preceding 12-months, from 30,675 to 39,641. Year-to-date, closed sales posted a 28% increase over the same period last year. Sales for the month of November, although down 18% from the unprecedented surge we experienced last year, were up 37% when compared to pre-pandemic levels of the three preceding years.

Listing Inventory / New Listings
With 2,229 properties on the market as of November 30, listing inventory has decreased somewhat since a modest increase that occurred over the summer. New listings for the 12-month period ending November 30 were down 4% from the preceding 12 months, from 38,145 to 36,554. For the month of November, new listings were down 13% from last year, and down 33% from the average of the three preceding years.

Average Selling Price
The average selling price for the 12-months through November 30 was $630,814, up 25% from the preceding 12-month period when the average selling price was $502,766.

Summary
After listing inventory posted modest growth in late spring and over the summer months, the number of listing on the market has declined somewhat due to a slower than usual pace of listings entering the market in October and November. The fall and early winter months are typically the slowest for new listings, and the rate at which listings enter the market for those months tends to vary from year to year. Although there’s little doubt that low standing inventory has constrained sales to some degree, closed sales for October and November were still up 33% compared to pre-pandemic levels. The busiest months for new listings are January through March and, if history is any indication, an increase in new listings over the next few months will fuel the market by further satisfying continued exceptionally strong demand.

It is my pleasure to inform you that John R. Wood Properties continues to lead the Southwest Florida market in closed dollar volume and closed units!

Below is a snapshot of July 2021 Southwest Florida Real Estate Market Report.

Closed Sales
Closed sales for the 12-month period ending July 31 were up 54.6% from the preceding 12-months. Year to date, closed sales posted a 58.6% increase over the same period last year.

Listing Inventory / New Listings
After several months of decline, the number of homes on the market stabilized in May and has since posted modest and steady increases. The 2,520 listings on the market as of July 31 were down 72.5% from the same date last year, and were up 11% since the end of May. Trends resulting in this increase slowly started to develop in recent months with a cooling of the feverish buyer activity that occurred early in the year and a greater than normal inflow of new listings.

Average Selling price
The average selling price for the 12-months through July 31 was $605,328, up 31.5% from the preceding 12-month period.

Summary
Our market continues to move in a positive direction. Demand, although having subsided somewhat from its previous intensity, remains strong. This, combined with favorable new listing activity, has stabilized listing inventory and provided more options for buyers. This is welcomed news for buyers who may have previously been reluctant to enter the market.

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Florida Average Mortgage Rates Falling 2.93%

Inflation hasn’t pushed mortgage rates higher because the market believes it’s only temporary, says Freddie Mac chief economist.

This week’s average mortgage rates fell a bit more, to 2.93% from last week’s 2.96% for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly update. In times of rising inflation, mortgage rates begin to rise. However, that hasn’t happened this time, at least so far.

Mortgage rates for the week of June 17, 2021

• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.93% with an average 0.7 point for the week, down from last week’s 2.96%. A year ago, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.13%.
• The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.24% with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week’s 2.23%. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.58%.
• The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.52% with an average 0.3 point, down from last week’s 2.55%. A year ago, it averaged 3.09%

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