Deep into an unusually quiet Atlantic storm season, Tropical Storm Isaias has officially developed into the first hurricane of 2026. The system was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane late Wednesday evening, resulting in history being made: Isaias becomes the season’s first hurricane at the latest date on record in 121 years.
As the storm tracks toward the northern Gulf Coast, Governor Ron DeSantis has issued Executive Order 26-202, declaring a State of Emergency for 25 counties across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend regions.
At the LeAneSuarezGroup, we continuously monitor Gulf of Mexico storm systems to keep our Sanibel, Captiva, and Fort Myers property owners informed. While Southwest Florida and Lee County are not currently included in the emergency declaration, late-season Gulf storms serve as a critical reminder that barrier island residents must maintain their hurricane readiness until the season officially closes on November 30.
“We’ve gone from a historic stretch without a hurricane to a potentially destructive storm threatening the Gulf Coast in a matter of days. El Niño has helped suppress hurricane activity across the Atlantic this season, but it hasn’t eliminated the threat. Even in an unusually quiet season, it only takes one hurricane to have devastating consequences.”
— Dan Pydynowski, AccuWeather Expert Meteorologist
Current Track and Forecasted Impacts
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Isaias has been passing north of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving east-northeast at approximately 10 mph.
Meteorologists forecast the system will turn northeast, followed by a sharp turn northward, making landfall just east of Mobile Bay, Alabama, late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
HURRICANE ISAIAS FAST FACTS
[ CURRENT STATUS ] ──► Category 1 Hurricane (85 mph sustained winds)
[ FORECAST PEAK ] ──► Category 2 (Potential to reach Major Hurricane status)
[ LANDFALL ETA ] ──► Late Friday night or early Saturday morning
[ TARGET AREA ] ──► Northern Gulf Coast (near Mobile Bay, AL / FL Panhandle)
[ HAZARDS ] ──► Life-threatening storm surge, flooding rainfall & tornadoes
“Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.”
— Richard Pasch, NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist
Florida State of Emergency: The 25 Impacted Counties
To stage critical preparedness resources and ensure rapid response capabilities, Governor DeSantis has activated the State Emergency Response Team (SERT). Resources are currently being strategically positioned in Tallahassee and the Santa Rosa area.
If you own secondary property, have family, or manage real estate investments in North Florida, the following counties are under the active State of Emergency:
| Region | Counties Under Emergency Declaration |
| Western Panhandle | Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay |
| Eastern Panhandle | Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty, Franklin, Gadsden, Leon, Wakulla |
| Big Bend & Inland | Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Lafayette, Dixie, Suwannee, Gilchrist, Columbia, Baker, Hamilton |
“This order will allow the Florida Division of Emergency Management to stage critical preparedness resources and ensure Florida is ready to respond. Floridians should take this time to get disaster plans in place and ensure their hurricane supply kit is stocked.”
— Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida
Southwest Florida Readiness Reminder
Because Isaias is projected to make landfall well to our north, Sanibel and Captiva Islands are spared from the direct cone of uncertainty. However, large Gulf storms often push peripheral rain bands, elevated tides, and heavy surf into Southwest Florida.
We advise all island residents and property managers to utilize this time for a late-season preparedness check:
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Secure Outdoor Items: Bring in lightweight patio furniture, potted plants, and umbrellas that could be tossed by peripheral wind gusts.
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Check the Go-Bag: Ensure your emergency kits have fresh water, updated prescriptions, and working batteries for NOAA weather radios.
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Review Insurance Policies: Confirm your flood and windstorm insurance policies are active and up to date.
For real-time tracking, always rely on the National Hurricane Center and local Lee County Emergency Management updates.