Southwest Florida Market Perspective: On a 12-month rolling basis, closed sales through March were down 8.6% from the preceding 12 months, while new listings were up 9.7%. There’s no question that market characteristics have changed over the past 12 months, but year-over-year changes alone don’t offer the context required to understand what those changes truly mean. That 9.7% increase in new listings may seem to suggest an unusual surge of homes entering the market; however, after reviewing longer-term new listing trends, we realize this increase was after a twelve-month period which represented a 10-year low. Further review reveals that new listings over the most recent 12 months came in at a slower pace than for 7 of the past 10 years and were only up when compared to the years of the pandemic-driven surge when the pace of new listings was historically slow.
It’s no surprise that, while new listings have increased since that unprecedented pandemic-driven market, sales have decreased. Sales over the past twelve months were down compared to pre-pandemic levels, as well. However, the potential consequences of this shift take on a different meaning when we realize that both the pace of new listings and closed sales over the past 12 months were down by nearly the same degree, 7%, and 6%, respectively, when compared to the average of the 6 years preceding the pandemic. This helps explain why, despite historically slow sales, our overall market remains in balance with 7 months of supply. It’s this relationship between supply and demand that gives us the clearest insight into the status of the market. Another metric to consider is days on market, which for Q1 2024 was lower than for any of the past 10 years excluding the most recent three.
Even in a balanced market with historically low days on market, sellers should remember that buyers now have options and aren’t likely to make an offer on a home that’s not properly priced. Conversely, a well-presented home that’s priced for today’s market will attract offers. Buyers should consider this when identifying one of these homes, as they may not be the only buyers to have realized the opportunity and have set their sights on it.
Through March, John R. Wood Christie’s International Real Estate continues to rank as the top brokerage in total year-to-date sales volume and transactions in Southwest Florida! Click here for entire report
