The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began in June, but it wasn’t until Thursday, Aug. 15 that the season’s first hurricane formed. At 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Erin was officially upgraded to a hurricane by the National Weather Service.
Just two days earlier, on Aug. 13, Erin was located about 890 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Forecasters predicted a west-northwest track, bringing the storm near or just north of the Northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Forecast & Potential Strength
Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and AccuWeather expect Erin to intensify quickly. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions northeast of the Lesser Antilles are favorable for rapid strengthening, potentially making Erin a major Category 3 hurricane by Saturday.
AccuWeather experts note there is even a chance Erin could reach Category 4 status this weekend or early next week. The system is expected to bring heavy rain, damaging winds, and dangerous surf to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
U.S. Impact: Low Risk for Now
Current weather models show Erin continuing on a west-northwest path before curving north, avoiding a Florida landfall. However, The Weather Channel reports that the exact point of the northward turn remains uncertain.
While the probability of U.S. East Coast landfall is currently low, coastal areas should monitor updates closely. Regardless of the exact track, Erin will generate high surf and dangerous rip currents along the East Coast next week.
Local Weather in Southwest Florida
Southwest Florida has already been experiencing a wet August. In the first two weeks alone:
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Agualinda Water Plant (Cape Coral): 5.53 inches of rain
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Bowman’s Beach (Sanibel): 14.44 inches, nearly 10 inches in just the last five days
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St. James City: 11.34 inches
For reference, the average August rainfall for Lee County since 1992 is 9.69 inches, meaning many areas are already at or above their monthly average.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis reassured residents on Aug. 13 via X, stating:
“Models for Hurricane Erin currently have it turning north and staying far away from Florida. We continue to monitor for any shifts.”
